A human-caused climate change signal emerges from the noise

Friday, November 30, 2012

By comparing simulations from 20 different computer models to satellite observations, Lawrence Livermore climate scientists and colleagues from 16 other organizations have found that tropospheric and stratospheric temperature changes are clearly related to human activities.

The team looked at geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change over the period of satellite observations. The team's goal of the study was to determine whether previous findings of a "discernible human influence" on tropospheric and stratospheric temperature were sensitive to current uncertainties in climate models and satellite data.

The troposphere is the lowest portion of earth's atmosphere. The stratosphere sits just above the troposphere, between 6 and 30 miles above earth's surface.

The satellite temperature data sets were produced by three different research groups, and rely on measurements of the microwave emissions of oxygen molecules. Each group made different choices in processing these raw measurements, and in accounting for such complex effects as drifts in satellite orbits and in instrument calibrations.

The new climate model simulations analyzed by the team will form the scientific backbone of the upcoming 5th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is due out in 2014.

In both satellite observations and the computer model simulations of historical climate change, the lower stratosphere cools markedly over the past 33 years. This cooling is primarily a response to the human-caused depletion of stratospheric ozone. The observations and model simulations also show a common pattern of large-scale warming of the lower troposphere, with largest warming over the Arctic, and muted warming (or even cooling) over Antarctica. Tropospheric warming is mainly driven by human-caused increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

"It's very unlikely that purely natural causes can explain these distinctive patterns of temperature change," said Laboratory atmospheric scientist Benjamin Santer, who is lead author of the paper appearing in the Nov. 29 online edition of the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "No known mode of natural climate variability can cause sustained, global-scale warming of the troposphere and cooling of the lower stratosphere."

The team analyzed results from climate model simulations with specified historical changes in human and natural external factors, and from simulations with projected 21st century changes in greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. They also looked at simulations with no changes in external influences on climate, which provide information on the year-to-year and decade-to-decade "noise" of internal climate variability, arising from such natural phenomena as the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

The team used a standard "climate fingerprint" method to search for the model signal pattern (in response to human influences, the sun and volcanoes) in the satellite observations. The method quantifies the strength of the signal in observations, relative to the strength of the signal in natural climate noise.

###

DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory: http://www.llnl.gov

Thanks to DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for this article.

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Source: http://www.labspaces.net/125608/A_human_caused_climate_change_signal_emerges_from_the_noise

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The Going Nuclear Gabfest

To listen to the discussion, use the player below:

On this week?s Slate Political Gabfest, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss the prospects for a deal to avert the fiscal cliff, whether the long-discussed option of limiting the filibuster is really going to happen, and the ethics of outing bullies online.

Here are some of the links and references mentioned during this week's show:

Topic ideas for next week? You can tweet suggestions, links, and questions to @SlateGabfest

The email address for the Political Gabfest is gabfest@slate.com. (Email may be quoted by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.)

Podcast production by Michael Vuolo. Links compiled by Jeff Friedrich.

Source: http://feeds.slate.com/click.phdo?i=9a66139cd933fa5d12ad75078b87ad4b

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Amputee's 18-hour ordeal in Ironman triathlon

By Vignesh Ramachandran, NBC News

When Jeff Schmidt completed the Ironman?triathlon?in Hawaii earlier this fall, crossing that finish line after nearly 18 hours on the course meant more than just the end of a race. It signified a positive highlight in a long physical and emotional battle the San Jose, Calif., resident has faced for over a decade.

"It was exciting, because it's a dream," Schmidt told NBCBayArea.com's?Garvin Thomas.

Fifteen years ago, Schmidt was a star player on his Missouri high school soccer team ? a young man dreaming of a college career and then going pro. During the first playoff game of his senior year, he had just finished saving a goal, when another player hit the side of his shin as his leg was in the air.

At that moment, Schmidt's life changed forever.

"I knew instantly my leg was [broken]," Schmidt said. His leg ended up being set and cast in the wrong way, which caused permanent damage. That led to 10 years of constant pain, failed surgeries and not being able to walk very far.


Schmidt faced depression and thoughts of suicide.

"We didn't know how to handle that kind of stress," his wife, Jenny, told NBCBayArea.com. "It ... caused medical issues, financial issues,?emotional?issues. It was tough. We went through a lot of really, really hard times."

Eventually in 2004, it was suggested that Schmidt should have his lower leg amputated. But the suggestion made him mad.

"I felt like I had fought so hard to keep that foot and ankle that to suggest getting rid of it, to me was like giving up." Schmidt said.

But three years after that suggestion, he went through with the amputation.

"If something in your life is causing you nothing but anguish, and you can?get rid of it, what do you do? You get rid of it," he said.

KNTV

Jeff Schmidt bicycles near his home in San Jose, Calif.

A second chance
At wife Jenny's suggestion, Schmidt, who now has a?prosthetic?leg, soon began training for?triathlons?like she was.

That brings the story back to 2012 in Kailua-Kona, Hawaii.

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On the day of the triathlon, Oct. 13, Schmidt felt good going in to the race, but challenges eventually arose: The run portion turned into a walk for him.

"I don't like to give up," Schmidt told NBCBayArea.com. "It's not something that is really in me to do."

Then, just four miles from the end,?race officials told him he would not make the finish line before the course officially closed at midnight. But that didn't stop Schmidt.

"I had come too far not to finish," he said.

Watch the Top Videos on NBCNews.com

Nearly 18 hours after the race began, and half an hour past midnight, Schmidt was the last Ironman still going.

But he crossed the finish line, last, to cheers.

"We were in awe, really," said Tal Johnson, president and COO of Berkeley, Calif., race sponsor Goo Energy Labs.?"All of us. You know -- grown men, experienced athletes who were moved to the point of tears."

"Going through everything with my leg and the amputation, and to be able to come and finish at Kona ... to me it's one of the highlights of my life," Schmidt said.

NBC Bay Area's Garvin Thomas contributed to this story.?The 2012 Ironman World Championship was telecast?by NBC Sports on Oct. 27. Next year's Ironman in Kailua-Kona?takes place on Oct. 12, 2013.

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Source: http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/30/15549270-amputees-18-hour-ordeal-in-ironman-triathlon-one-of-the-highlights-of-my-life?lite

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A Blood Test That Screens For Cancer

Some screening tests for cancer byproducts already exist, like the PSA test for prostate cancer. Other early-detection tests abound, such as Mammograms and Colonoscopies. While some of the screening tests, such as the Pap Smear, have shown to dramatically reduce cancer deaths, others, such as the PSA and Mammogram have detected a lot of cancers, but done absolutely bupkis to reduce death rates when given to populations not otherwise at high risk. Colonoscopies work, but are extremely expensive vs. the benefit they provide. (As in, it'd be a lot more efficient to spend healthcare dollars elsewhere, and there are other screening tests nearly as effective that are much cheaper.) Apparently they don't do a good job detecting aggressive cancers in those populations early enough to make a difference. With how fast some aggressive cancers work, the tests might have to be administered several times a year (at the cost of countless billions) to make any difference.

In addition, the PSA and Mammogram HAVE caused billions to be spent on procedures with quite severe side effects to further diagnose, and treat, problems that almost certainly would not have killed their "victims." Most Prostate tumors grow slowly enough that you could leave it alone for the rest of your life, and die of something else instead; meanwhile, prostate cancer treatment almost always causes problems with incontinence and impotence; two major quality of life issues. Most "breast cancers" detected by mammograms are Ductal Carcinoma In Situ, another type of cancer that is unlikely to kill you any time soon.

We need to think VERY carefully before rolling out any MORE widespread cancer screening tests, since many of the ones we have now simply don't work.

Source: http://rss.slashdot.org/~r/Slashdot/slashdotScience/~3/JD8wshr16X0/story01.htm

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Academy welcomes Energy Bill and will continue to support UK's ...

29 November 2012

Academy welcomes Energy Bill and will continue to support UK's energy future

The Royal Academy of Engineering welcomes the publication of today's Energy Bill. There is an urgent need for clarity and stability in the UK's energy policy to enable companies to invest with confidence in new generation technology.

The Academy is pleased that energy policy has moved up the political agenda and looks forward to helping government develop a truly integrated energy policy that brings together electricity transport, heat, and the power of a future smart grid to solve the trilemma of energy security, affordability and sustainability. In its 2010 report Generating the Future: UK energy systems fit for 2050, the Academy drew attention to the challenges of developing an integrated energy system. Since then we have studied in greater depth the effects of electric vehicles (Electric Vehicles: charged with potential, 2010) and the even more difficult challenge of decarbonising domestic heating (Heat: degrees of comfort? 2012).

Today's statements seem to take on board what the Academy has been arguing for some time: that energy is a vital and valuable resource and that the engineering and financial challenges are unprecedented and immense. Much more effort will need to go into reducing energy wastage as well as into new generating and grid assets.

Sir John Parker GBE FREng, President of the Royal Academy of Engineering, says:

"Energy is at the heart of society and underpins economic growth. Without a secure and affordable supply of energy for the long term, our industries will not be globally competitive. The UK stands at a crossroads; we need massive investment in our energy system over the coming years to replace ageing infrastructure and create a modern, clean secure energy system."

ends

Notes for editors

  1. Founded in 1976, The Royal Academy of Engineering promotes the engineering and technological welfare of the country. Our fellowship - comprising the UK's most eminent engineers - provides the leadership and expertise for our activities, which focus on the relationships between engineering, technology, and the quality of life. As a national academy, we provide independent and impartial advice to Government; work to secure the next generation of engineers; and provide a voice for Britain's engineering community.

For more information please contact:

Jane Sutton at The Royal Academy of Engineering Tel. 020 7766 0636; email: Jane Sutton

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Source: http://www.raeng.org.uk/news/releases/shownews.htm?NewsID=810

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Unibet.fr to join iPoker - Online Gambling News

Peter Amsel
November 29, 2012
No Comments

unibet-titan-black-chip-pokerUnibet?s French poker site is reportedly preparing to ditch the Ongame Network to join Playtech?s iPoker.fr network. While Unibet has yet to confirm or deny, PokerFuse reported the move would be made within the next two weeks. The addition of Unibet would further strengthen iPoker?s already strong position in the French market, having just finished absorbing Betclic Everest?s poker players earlier this month. Unibet?s departure would leave Bwin.fr as Ongame?s lone French skin, but since Bwin is in the process of merging its poker activities with its Bwin.party partner PartyPoker, it looks like endgame for Ongame, at least en fran?ais. Bwin.party sold Ongame to Canada?s Amaya Gaming Group a month ago.

Merge Gaming Network skin Black Chip Poker also appears to be on the move, although the destination is a matter of some conjecture. Last month, Black Chip publicly expressed its displeasure with Merge?s decision to ban P2P transfers, a move Black Chip said Merge had not bothered to disclose to its skins beforehand. Now a Black Chip rep has announced the company will not participate in Merge?s upcoming Poker Maximus III event ?due to a number of reasons which will become clear within the next week. We are confident this decision is in the best interests of our players and partners.? Unconfirmed scuttlebutt has Black Chip ending up on the Winning Poker Network, home to Americas Cardroom, TruePoker and sportsbooks like BetCris and 5Dimes.

Finally, iPoker skin Titan Poker has become the first real-money online poker site to take advantage of Hall of Hands, that wacky social poker app that uses ?real life actors with running commentary? to reenact your recent poker play on a video you can then circulate to all your online friends, who will in no way get tired of this like they eventually tired of your damn LOLcat jpegs. Hall of Hands Studio recently added options to let players choose the venue in which their video takes place, such as the back room of a bar, a city tower complete with breathtaking view or the ever-popular ?empty warehouse? for that Reservoir Dogs vibe. (?Are you going to bark all day, little doggie, or are you going to bet??) You can also choose one of 10 actors to represent your bad self, but before you get too excited, there?s no ?George Clooney? option.

If you have any further information related to this story that you would like to share with us privately please click here.

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Views and opinions expressed are those of the Author and do not necessarily reflect those of CalvinAyre.com

Source: http://calvinayre.com/2012/11/29/poker/unibet-joining-ipoker-fr-black-chip-leaving-merge-titan-poker-inks-hall-of-hands/

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Breast Cancer Risk Increase with Repeat Imaging - Diagnostic ...

CHICAGO ? Between 1980 and 2006, the per capita exposure to radiation from diagnostic imaging in America increased six-fold. And now, new research suggests that breast cancer risk estimates increase with frequent CT scans, particularly among younger patients, according to a study presented at RSNA 2012.

?We already know there is an increased risk of cancer after an exposure to radiation that's in the same range as is delivered by imaging, particularly CT exams,? said Ginger Merry, MD, breast imaging fellow at Chicago's Prentice Women's Hospital, Northwestern Memorial Hospital and leader of the study.

Since breast tissue is known to be particularly radiosensitive, researchers aimed to examine the impact of increased imaging on radiation exposure and resulting breast cancer risk. Merry and her colleagues performed a retrospective study of about 250,000 women enrolled in a large integrated health care system between 2000 and 2010.

?We gathered data on all examinations that could deliver radiation to the breast tissue, including CT, radiography, fluoroscopy and nuclear medicine, performed by injecting a radiopharmaceutical into the blood stream. Over the 10 year period, we looked at their cumulative radiation exposure,? Merry said.

Using smaller data samples, Merry and her team were able to estimate the average radiation dose given during each examination and calculate the associated breast cancer risk. Then, they compared the imaging-risk to a baseline risk, beginning 10 years after the exposure.

"We found that the estimated breast radiation doses from CT were highly variable across patients, with the highest doses coming from multiple-phase cardiac and chest CT examinations, where successive images of the organ being studied are captured," said senior author Rebecca Smith-Bindman, MD, of the University of California, San Francisco.

More troubling, pediatric doses were more similar than expected to doses administered to adults, and when repeated CT examinations were performed at an early age, young women had an increased risk of breast cancer.

?Younger women are at the highest risk due to increased radiosensitivity of breast tissue and their longer lifespans, and therefore a longer time period in which to develop breast cancer,? Merry said.

For example, if a girl with no other familial or genetic risk factors of breast cancer were to have two chest CT scans at age 15, her risk at age 25 of developing breast cancer in the next 10 years would double. The longer the time since the exposure, the greater the risk of cancer.

To lower imaging-associated breast cancer risk, radiologists should carefully evaluate the need for imaging and monitor radiation doses given with each exam, Smith-Bindman said. Radiation exposure could also be minimized by decreasing the amount of multi-phase protocols whenever possible.

"If imaging is truly indicated, then the risk of developing cancer is small and should not dissuade women from getting the test they need," she said. "On the other hand, a lot of patients are undergoing repeat chest and cardiac CT, many of which aren't necessary. Women, and particularly young women, should understand there is a small but real potential risk of breast cancer associated with cardiac and chest CT, and the risk increases with the number of scans."

Source: http://www.diagnosticimaging.com/conference-reports/rsna2012/content/article/113619/2116657?CID=rss

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Anger as Hungary far-right leader demands lists of Jews

BUDAPEST (Reuters) - A Hungarian far-right politician urged the government to draw up lists of Jews who pose a "national security risk", stirring outrage among Jewish leaders who saw echoes of fascist policies that led to the Holocaust.

Marton Gyongyosi, a leader of Hungary's third-strongest political party Jobbik, said the list was necessary because of heightened tensions following the brief conflict in Gaza and should include members of parliament.

Opponents have condemned frequent anti-Semitic slurs and tough rhetoric against the Roma minority by Gyongyosi's party as populist point scoring ahead of elections in 2014.

Jobbik has never called publicly for lists of Jews.

"I am a Holocaust survivor," said Gusztav Zoltai, executive director of the Hungarian Jewish Congregations' Association. "For people like me this generates raw fear, even though it is clear that this only serves political ends. This is the shame of Europe, the shame of the world."

Between 500,000 and 600,000 Hungarian Jews died in the Holocaust, according to the Holocaust Memorial Centre in Budapest. According to some accounts, one in three Jews killed in Auschwitz were Hungarian nationals.

Gyongyosi's call came after Foreign Ministry State Secretary Zsolt Nemeth said Budapest favored a peaceful solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as benefiting both Israelis with Hungarian ancestry, Hungarian Jews and Palestinians in Hungary.

Gyongyosi, who leads Jobbik's foreign policy cabinet, told Parliament: "I know how many people with Hungarian ancestry live in Israel, and how many Israeli Jews live in Hungary," according to a video posted on Jobbik's website late on Monday.

"I think such a conflict makes it timely to tally up people of Jewish ancestry who live here, especially in the Hungarian Parliament and the Hungarian government, who, indeed, pose a national security risk to Hungary."

Gyongyosi, 35, is the son of a diplomat who grew up mostly in the Middle East and Asia -- Egypt, Iraq, Afghanistan and India -- and whose office is decorated by Iranian and Turkish souvenirs. He graduated with a degree in business and political science from Trinity College in Dublin in 2000.

He worked for four years at the Dublin office of KPMG, then returned to Budapest in 2005. He has been active in Jobbik since 2006 and became their MP in 2010.

APOLOGY

The government condemned the remarks.

"The government strictly rejects extremist, racist, anti-Semitic voices of any kind and does everything to suppress such voices," the government spokesman's office said.

Laszlo Kover, the Speaker of parliament, who is from the ruling Fidesz party, also issued a statement on Tuesday in which he called for a tightening of house rules that would allow a sanctioning of such behavior.

Gyongyosi tried to play down his comments on Tuesday, saying he was referring to citizens with dual Israeli-Hungarian citizenship.

"I apologize to my Jewish compatriots for my declarations that could be misunderstood," he said on Jobbik's website.

He later told a news conference that he would not resign and considered the matter "closed," national news agency MTI reported.

Jobbik's anti-Semitic discourse often evokes a centuries-old blood libel - the accusation that Jews used Christians' blood in religious rituals.

"Jobbik has moved from representing medieval superstition (of the blood libel) to openly Nazi ideologies," wrote Slomo Koves, chief rabbi of the Unified Hungarian Jewish Congregation.

STEADY BASE

Jobbik registered as a political party in 2003, and gained increasing influence as it radicalized gradually, vilifying Jews and the country's 700,000 Roma.

The group gained notoriety after founding the Hungarian Guard, an unarmed vigilante group reminiscent of World War Two-era far-right groups. It entered Parliament at the 2010 elections and holds 44 of 386 seats.

The centre-right government of Prime Minister Viktor Orban has struggled to pull Hungary out of recession as many European countries suffer from an economic crisis.

Orban's Fidesz has lost more than a million voters since 2010, even though it is still the strongest political force.

More than half of Hungary's electorate is undecided and having retained its voter base, some analysts say Jobbik could hold the balance of power in the 2014 elections between Fidesz and the fragmented left-wing opposition.

(Editing by Tom Pfeiffer and Anna Willard)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/anger-hungary-far-leader-demands-lists-jews-123412393.html

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Skin cancer and its types - by Shokat Khanum Institute.

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